Only half of organizations currently use a theory of change to inform their work. Unfortunately, every impact-driven project should have it at the ready.
A theory of change is a critical document and process that will help your organization understand how they are creating impact. It is the foundation of any impact measurement journey. A theory of change is the roadmap to understand how your program or intervention is changing lives. Let’s go over everything you need to know about how to write a theory of change.
- What is a theory of change?
- How do you write a simple theory of change?
- Theory of change example
- Every program needs a theory of change
What is a theory of change?
A theory of change is a type of logic model – a visual representation of the cause-and-effect of your program or intervention. It’s a visual flow chart of how your program resources and activities lead to the impact you’re looking to make. The process of developing a theory of change is a critical exercise in getting the buy-in and understanding of various stakeholders involved.
How do you write a simple theory of change?
The best way to write a simple theory of change is to go backwards a little. Like this: Inputs, activities, impact, outputs, outcomes.
We recommend starting with concrete parts: inputs and activities. Most program managers or folks familiar with the program will have clear knowledge about these parts and can complete them easily.
Inputs are the material and non-material assets of the program.
Examples of inputs:
- Money
- Staff and/or volunteers
- Classrooms
- Expertise
Activities are the things your program does.
- Classes or education
- Handing out free contraception
- Distributing laptops
- Counseling/support groups
Impact. Next, we recommend completing the impact portion. Impact is the big picture change you’re looking to make on individuals or communities. What’s the goal of your program or intervention? Why does it exist? Think bigger than the day-to-day operations.
Examples of impact:
- Reducing HIV in the LGBTQ+ community
- Reducing hunger in the community
- Increasing employment
- Improving the environment
- Reducing prison recidivism among young men
Most likely you’ll only have a few impact goals. As we explained in our article about impact, you don’t have any direct control over impact. Our downloadable worksheet for a theory of change helps connect the cause-and-effect between program activities and outputs with ultimate impact goal(s).
Outputs are the direct result of your program activities. If you do your program activity, what do you get out of that?
Examples of outputs:
| Activities | Outputs |
| Classes | people trained |
| Handing out free contraception | # of condoms distributed |
| Distributing laptops | # of laptops distributed |
| Support groups | number of people in support groups; number of support groups |
Nonprofits and social enterprises often confuse outputs with program outcomes or impact. Outputs are not impact. Make sure you understand the difference.
Outcomes are more difficult. These are the behavioral changes that happen in the person or community as a result of your program inputs. You have no control over program outcomes and they are more difficult to measure.
Examples of outcomes:
| Outputs | Outcomes |
| # people trained | increased knowledge |
| # condoms distributed | increased condom use |
| # of laptops distributed | increased access to online services |
| # people in support groups | reduced stress |
Outcomes can be measured in percentages or even in qualitative feedback. These changes in individuals then lead to changes within the wider community. That’s impact.
Tips to write a theory of change
Involve your stakeholders. In the conversations about your theory of change, include the people that your program serves. They know best what is happening, what is not happening, and what could happen in a program meant for their benefit. After all, they know best what works for them.
Come back to it. Your theory of change is not set in stone. It’s a working document. Your theory of change will… change as your program rolls out, collects information, and measures its impact. This is natural and healthy.
Theory of change example
One example we’ve used before is that a theory of change is like going on vacation.
Download our free worksheet for a theory of change to help you get started. The guide includes a theory of change template and a worked example to help you write your own.
Every program needs a theory of change
If you don’t have a road map, you’re going to get lost. Having a theory of change will help you understand the positive impact you have and how your program leads to these changes. Want further help to get started? Contact Archer Impact and we’ll walk you through a 30-minute brainstorming session in which we discuss your initial approach to your theory of change and establish your social impact goals. We’ll produce a PDF/JPG graphic model as well as a write-up about how your organization plans to incorporate strategic impact measurement in your work. This Social Impact Targeting statement is something you can drop into funding applications to demonstrate your commitment to the true value of your project.
Photo by ArtHouse Studio